Online Piracy Statistics, Is Money Really Being Lost?

I read a lot of articles about piracy of film, television and music.

Most of these articles seem to fall into one of two categories: Either they are presenting the argument of the victimised producers and distributors of material and how much money they are losing or they are focusing on why we, the consumers, shouldn't be pirating.

Good articles of course quote statistics and surveys that have been conducted to show how many people are pirating and how much lost revenue that equates to but this seems an incomplete statistic to me. Yes many people might be pirating but does every single pirate of a film equal one lost ticket or DVD sale? I would like to see some information about how many of those pirates would have purchased the film, album or TV series if there were no other option except to pirate it.

I'm would also predict that certain films are more prone to piracy than others. For example a trashy action film might not be worth the $12-40 you might spend seeing it in the cinema or buying the bluray but may still want to see it. Are these people lost revenue if they never would have paid for it anyway?

The film, TV and music industry all feature groups kicking and screaming about lost money but perhaps they just need to recognise that if people aren't willing to pay for the products you are selling that doesn't make your customers criminals, it's an opportunity to do something better.